A small state ratified a trade treaty ten years ago. Economic conditions have changed and the treaty now costs it more than it gains in the short term. Realists would predict defection. What three mechanisms might explain why the state still complies?
Think about your answer, then reveal below.
Model answer: First, reputational concerns: defecting signals unreliability to all current and potential future treaty partners, raising the cost of future agreements and potentially triggering retaliatory non-compliance in other agreements. Second, domestic politics: the treaty may have been incorporated into domestic law, and domestic courts, export industries that benefit from partner-state market access, or civil society groups may actively constrain the executive from defecting. Third, legitimacy: if the state's decision-makers genuinely believe in the rightfulness of treaty obligations — perhaps because they participated in negotiating the treaty and regard it as a fair agreement — they may comply from a sense of legal obligation even when the immediate material calculus favors defection.
The point is that compliance is overdetermined in most cases — multiple mechanisms simultaneously support it. The realist prediction of defection when immediate interest favors it is too simple because it ignores the iterated game structure (reputational mechanism), the non-unitary nature of state decision-making (domestic politics mechanism), and the role of norms and legitimacy in shaping behavior beyond material incentives.