Making Predictions

Core Idea

Making a prediction means guessing what will happen next in a story based on clues the author has given you. Good readers are always thinking ahead -- they use what they know about the characters, the problem, and the way stories work to predict the next event. Predictions do not have to be right to be useful; they keep your brain active and engaged with the story.

How It's Best Learned

Pause at an exciting moment in a story and write down or say your prediction before turning the page. After reading further, check: Was your prediction correct? What clues helped you guess? What surprised you? Practice with several stories and notice how your predictions get better over time.

Common Misconceptions

• Thinking predictions have to be correct to count; the value is in the thinking, not in being right.
• Believing you should only predict at the beginning of the story; good readers predict constantly throughout the book.
• Assuming predictions are just wild guesses; the best predictions are based on evidence from the text and illustrations.

Explainer

Predictions are educated guesses about what will happen next in a story. Before you start reading, you might predict: This book is about a dragon, so probably there will be adventure and danger. As you read, you gather more clues: The character is brave and clever, so I predict they will figure out how to defeat the dragon. Making predictions keeps you thinking and wondering as you read, which makes reading more fun.

Good predictions use clues from the story and what you know about how stories work. If a character is determined and loyal, and their friend is in trouble, you might predict they will go rescue their friend. If an author keeps mentioning a mysterious door, you might predict the door will be important later. If a character is scared of water and the story is building toward a big challenge, you might predict they will have to face their fear by using water.

Here is something important: your predictions do not have to be right. Sometimes authors surprise you and the opposite happens—that is what makes reading exciting! The character you thought would fail succeeds. The villain turns out to be good. The treasure is not where you expected. These surprises are wonderful because they keep you reading and engaged. Making predictions wrong teaches you to be ready for anything.

As you read, make predictions before chapters, before big scenes, or whenever you feel curious about what will happen. Write them down, or just think about them, or talk about them with a friend. After you read more, see if your prediction was right. If it was, celebrate! If it was not, think about why the author went a different direction. This kind of thinking makes you a stronger, more thoughtful reader who pays attention to details and enjoys the surprises authors create.