The Boltzmann factor exp(-E/kT) makes high-energy states less probable. Why does this arise naturally from the behavior of a system in contact with a heat reservoir?
Think about your answer, then reveal below.
Model answer: When the system occupies a high-energy state, the reservoir must supply that energy and therefore loses entropy. Because the combined entropy of system plus reservoir is maximized at equilibrium, states that reduce the reservoir's entropy are suppressed exponentially, giving the Boltzmann factor.
This is the central argument of statistical mechanics. The reservoir has an enormous number of microstates, and its entropy decreases when it gives energy to the system. The probability of the system having energy E is proportional to the number of microstates available to the reservoir after giving up E, which is exp(-E/kT) by the definition of temperature as ∂S/∂E = 1/T. The partition function Z normalizes this over all possible states.