Geometric Brownian Motion

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Core Idea

Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) solves dS = μS dt + σS dW, where both drift and diffusion are proportional to the current value S. Applying Itô's formula to ln(S) reveals that log-returns are normally distributed: ln(S(t)/S(0)) = (μ - σ²/2)t + σW(t), so S(t) = S(0)exp((μ - σ²/2)t + σW(t)). The solution is always positive, lognormally distributed, and is the standard model for stock prices in mathematical finance — the foundation of Black-Scholes theory.

Explainer

Geometric Brownian motion is the multiplicative analogue of Brownian motion. Where Brownian motion adds random increments (dX = σ dW), GBM multiplies by random factors (dS/S = μ dt + σ dW, or equivalently dS = μS dt + σS dW). The proportionality of both drift and diffusion to the current level S means that percentage changes, not absolute changes, are the natural unit — a 1% move when S = 100 is a 1% move when S = 1000. This multiplicative structure is why GBM is the default model for prices, populations, and other quantities that grow proportionally.

Solving the SDE requires Itô's formula. Apply f(x) = ln(x) to S: d(ln S) = (1/S)dS + (1/2)(-1/S²)(dS)² = (μ - σ²/2)dt + σ dW. The Itô correction subtracts σ²/2 from the drift — a critical detail. Integrating: ln(S(t)) - ln(S(0)) = (μ - σ²/2)t + σW(t), so S(t) = S(0)exp((μ - σ²/2)t + σW(t)). Since W(t) ~ N(0,t), the log-return ln(S(t)/S(0)) is normally distributed, and S(t) itself is lognormally distributed with E[S(t)] = S(0)e^{μt} and Var(S(t)) = S(0)²e^{2μt}(e^{σ²t} - 1).

A subtle but important distinction: the median of S(t) is S(0)exp((μ - σ²/2)t), growing at rate μ - σ²/2, while the mean E[S(t)] = S(0)e^{μt} grows at the faster rate μ. The gap σ²/2 is a Jensen's inequality effect — the convexity of the exponential function means the average of e^X exceeds e^{average of X}. When σ is large, the median can decrease even as the mean increases. This has practical implications: a "typical" sample path of GBM grows slower than the expected value suggests, because the mean is pulled up by rare but extreme positive outcomes.

In mathematical finance, GBM is the foundation of the Black-Scholes model. Under the risk-neutral measure (obtained via Girsanov's theorem), the stock price follows dS = rS dt + σS dW̃ where r is the risk-free rate. The explicit lognormal distribution of S(T) allows closed-form pricing of European options: the Black-Scholes formula is a direct consequence of computing E[max(S(T) - K, 0)] under this lognormal distribution. While GBM's assumptions (constant μ, σ, no jumps, normal log-returns) are violated by real market data, its tractability and the intuitions it provides make it the essential starting point for all of quantitative finance.

Practice Questions 4 questions

Prerequisite Chain

Counting to 10Counting to 20Understanding ZeroThe Number ZeroCounting to FiveOne-to-One CorrespondenceCombining Small Groups Within 5Addition Within 10Addition Within 20Two-Digit Addition Without RegroupingTwo-Digit Addition with RegroupingAddition Within 100Repeated Addition as MultiplicationMultiplication Facts Within 100Division as Equal SharingDivision as Grouping (Measurement Division)Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) ModelDivision: Fair Sharing ModelDivision as Equal SharingDivision as GroupingBasic Division FactsDivision Facts Within 100Two-Digit by One-Digit DivisionDivision with RemaindersRemainders and Quotients in DivisionDivision Word ProblemsIntroduction to Long DivisionFactors and MultiplesPrime and Composite NumbersEquivalent FractionsRelating Fractions and DecimalsDecimal Place ValueReading and Writing DecimalsComparing and Ordering DecimalsAdding and Subtracting DecimalsMultiplying DecimalsDividing DecimalsDividing FractionsMixed Number ArithmeticOrder of OperationsInteger Order of OperationsVariable ExpressionsCombining Like TermsOne-Step EquationsTwo-Step EquationsSolving Multi-Step EquationsEquations with Variables on Both SidesAngle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and VerticalParallel Lines and TransversalsCorresponding AnglesAlternate Interior AnglesTriangle Angle Sum TheoremExterior Angle TheoremTriangle Inequality TheoremSimilar Triangles: AA SimilaritySimilar Triangles: SSS and SAS SimilarityProportions in Similar TrianglesRight Triangle Trigonometry IntroductionTrigonometric Ratios ReviewRadian MeasureConverting Between Degrees and RadiansThe Unit CircleGraphing Sine and CosineGraphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric FunctionsDerivatives of Trigonometric FunctionsAntiderivativesIterated Integrals and Fubini's TheoremDouble Integrals in Cartesian CoordinatesDouble Integrals over Rectangular RegionsDouble Integrals in Polar CoordinatesDouble Integrals: Definition and SetupIterated Integrals and Fubini's TheoremDouble Integrals over Rectangular RegionsDouble Integrals over General RegionsApplications of Double Integrals: Area, Mass, and MomentsCenter of MassConservation of Linear MomentumElastic CollisionsInelastic CollisionsCoefficient of RestitutionCollision Analysis and Real-World ApplicationsTwo-Body Collisions in the Center-of-Mass FrameReduced Mass and Two-Body ProblemsKinematics in Two DimensionsProjectile MotionCircular Motion: KinematicsRotational KinematicsTorqueMoment of InertiaRotational Kinetic EnergyThe Work-Energy TheoremConservation of Mechanical EnergyFirst Law of ThermodynamicsThermodynamic Processes and the PV DiagramIsobaric and Isochoric ProcessesHeat EnginesThermal Efficiency of Heat EnginesRefrigerators and Heat PumpsSecond Law of ThermodynamicsEntropyMicrostates and MacrostatesEnsemble Theory FundamentalsCanonical Ensemble (NVT)Partition Function: Definition and PropertiesThe Canonical Partition Function and Thermodynamic DerivationMaxwell-Boltzmann Distribution and Classical LimitBrownian MotionProperties of Brownian MotionThe Itô IntegralItô's Formula (Itô's Lemma)Stochastic Differential EquationsGeometric Brownian Motion

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