Greenhouse gases (CO₂, H₂O, CH₄, N₂O, O₃) are transparent to incoming shortwave solar radiation but absorb outgoing longwave infrared radiation emitted by Earth's surface. This absorbed energy is re-emitted in all directions, including back toward the surface, raising surface temperatures well above what they would be without an atmosphere. The natural greenhouse effect keeps Earth ~33°C warmer than its effective radiating temperature. Radiative forcing measures how much a change in atmospheric composition alters the energy balance at the top of the atmosphere.
Use a layer model of the atmosphere to trace radiative flows. Compare greenhouse gas concentrations and their global warming potentials (GWPs) — CO₂ is the reference, but methane is ~80× more potent over 20 years.
To understand the greenhouse effect, start with what Earth receives and what it emits. The Sun is extremely hot and radiates mostly shortwave energy — visible light and ultraviolet radiation. Earth's surface absorbs this energy and warms up, but a warm surface re-radiates energy at much longer wavelengths — infrared radiation, which we experience as heat. The critical asymmetry is that the atmosphere treats these two wavelength ranges very differently.
Greenhouse gases — primarily water vapor, CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide — are largely transparent to incoming shortwave solar radiation, allowing it to pass through and warm the surface. But they are strong absorbers of outgoing longwave infrared. When an infrared photon is absorbed by a CO₂ or H₂O molecule, that molecule re-emits energy in a random direction. Roughly half goes upward (eventually escaping to space) and roughly half goes back downward toward the surface. This "back radiation" means the surface is being warmed by both the Sun and the atmosphere above it — an energy surplus that raises surface temperatures.
Without any greenhouse effect, Earth's average surface temperature would be around −18°C. The natural greenhouse effect raises it to about +15°C — a 33°C difference that makes liquid water and life possible. This is not a problem; it is the baseline condition for habitable Earth. The concern with anthropogenic climate change is the *enhancement* of this effect by additional greenhouse gases from fossil fuel burning and land use change.
It is common to assume CO₂ is the dominant greenhouse gas, but water vapor holds that title by concentration and magnitude. The difference is that water vapor is a feedback: its concentration is set by temperature (at any given temperature, the atmosphere holds a roughly fixed maximum amount of water vapor). CO₂, methane, and other anthropogenic gases are *forcings* — they change independently of temperature, directly altering the energy balance and then causing water vapor to increase as temperature rises. This water vapor feedback amplifies the initial forcing significantly.
Radiative forcing provides a standardized way to compare the warming influence of any factor — whether a greenhouse gas, aerosol, or change in solar output — in units of watts per square meter (W/m²). A positive forcing means more energy is retained than before, pushing temperatures up. This concept allows climate scientists to rank and compare contributions from different sources and forms the foundation for understanding how human activities are altering the global energy balance.