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Lagged Dependent Variable Regression

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Multiple RegressionTime Series Data: Structure and Concepts+1 more→→Dynamic Panel Models: Arellano-Bond Estimator
dynamic-models time-series lagged-variables

Core Idea

The model Yₜ = β₀ + β₁Yₜ₋₁ + β₂Xₜ + uₜ includes lagged Y; β₁ measures persistence and dynamic adjustment. OLS remains consistent if uₜ is serially uncorrelated and exogenous, but standard errors require adjustment for the correlation between Yₜ₋₁ and subsequent errors.

Explainer

Your multiple regression model assumes that the regressors explain current outcomes, and that past values of the outcome have no independent explanatory power once those regressors are included. For a great many economic processes, this is unrealistic. GDP this quarter is partly predicted by GDP last quarter, independently of any other variable you might include. Inflation today partly reflects inflation yesterday. Unemployment persists. The lagged dependent variable model formalizes this insight: Yₜ₋₁ appears as an explicit regressor, so the model can distinguish how much of today's value reflects yesterday's value (inertia) versus the effect of current inputs.

The coefficient β₁ on the lagged dependent variable has a clean interpretation: it measures persistence, the fraction of a deviation from steady state that carries forward one period. If β₁ = 0.8, a one-unit shock to Y today fades to 0.8 units next period, 0.64 the period after, and so on — a geometric decay you may recognize from sequences. When 0 < β₁ < 1, the process is stationary and mean-reverting. The dynamic effect of X on Y also becomes richer: a one-unit increase in X today raises Y immediately by β₂, but also raises Yₜ₊₁ by β₁β₂ (via the lagged term), and Yₜ₊₂ by β₁²β₂, continuing indefinitely. The total long-run effect of X on Y is β₂ / (1 − β₁), substantially larger than the immediate impact when β₁ is close to 1.

From your time series basics you know that the relationship between Yₜ and Yₜ₋₁ creates a structural constraint on the error term. OLS on this model requires that uₜ be serially uncorrelated — if errors are themselves autocorrelated, then Yₜ₋₁ will be correlated with uₜ through the chain Yₜ₋₁ → uₜ₋₁ → uₜ, violating the exogeneity condition and biasing estimates. This is why you cannot simply import a cross-sectional regression mindset into dynamic time series. Testing residuals for serial correlation (Durbin-Watson or Breusch-Godfrey) is not optional — it is the diagnostic that validates your model. If autocorrelation is present, the solution is either to add more lags or to specify the error structure explicitly, not to ignore it.

Practice Questions 5 questions

Prerequisite Chain

Understanding Zero → The Number Zero → Counting to Five → Counting to 10 → Counting to 20 → Counting a Set of Objects Up to 20 → Cardinality: The Last Number Counted → Matching Numerals to Quantities → Subitizing Small Quantities → Addition Within 10 → Number Bonds to 10 → Addition Within 20 → Doubles and Near Doubles → Doubles Facts Within 10 → Near Doubles Facts Within 20 → Mental Math Strategies for Addition → Mental Math: Adding and Subtracting Tens → Addition Within 100 → Repeated Addition as Multiplication → Multiplication as Equal Groups → Multiplication: Arrays → Basic Multiplication Facts (0s, 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s) → Multiplication Facts Within 100 → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping (Measurement Division) → Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) Model → Division: Fair Sharing Model → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping → Basic Division Facts → Division Facts Within 100 → Multiplication and Division Fact Families → Relationship Between Multiplication and Division → Division Facts as Inverse of Multiplication → Remainders and Quotients in Division → Division Word Problems → Multi-Step Word Problems → Solving Multi-Step Word Problems → Multiplication Word Problems → Division Word Problems → Introduction to Long Division → Factors and Multiples → Prime and Composite Numbers → Equivalent Fractions → Relating Fractions and Decimals → Decimal Place Value → Integers and the Number Line → Comparing and Ordering Integers → Absolute Value → Adding Integers → Subtracting Integers → Multiplying Integers → Dividing Integers → Unit Rates → Proportions → Percent Concept → Converting Between Fractions, Decimals, and Percents → Operations with Rational Numbers → Two-Step Equations → Solving Multi-Step Equations → Equations with Variables on Both Sides → Angle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and Vertical → Parallel Lines and Transversals → Corresponding Angles → Alternate Interior Angles → Triangle Angle Sum Theorem → Exterior Angle Theorem → Triangle Inequality Theorem → Similar Triangles: AA Similarity → Similar Triangles: SSS and SAS Similarity → Proportions in Similar Triangles → Right Triangle Trigonometry Introduction → Sine, Cosine, and Tangent Ratios → Trigonometric Ratios Review → Radian Measure → Converting Between Degrees and Radians → The Unit Circle → Graphing Sine and Cosine → Graphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric Functions → Derivatives of Trigonometric Functions → Antiderivatives → Indefinite Integrals → Basic Integration Rules → Riemann Sums → Definite Integral Definition → Probability Density Functions and Continuous Distributions → Cumulative Distribution Functions → Continuous Random Variables → Probability Density Functions → Expected Value → Weak Law of Large Numbers → Probability Axioms and Rules → Conditional Probability → Independence of Events → Sampling Distributions → Standard Error of Estimators → Hypothesis Testing: Framework and Logic → P-values and Statistical Significance → Effect Size and Practical Significance → Hypothesis Testing: Framework and Logic → Z-Tests and T-Tests for Means → One-Sample Z-Test for Means → One-Sample and Two-Sample T-Tests → Inference in Linear Regression → Prediction Intervals in Regression → Linear Regression Basics → Residuals and Goodness of Fit (R²) → Simple (Bivariate) OLS Regression → Classical OLS Assumptions (Gauss-Markov) → Multiple Regression → Lagged Dependent Variable Regression

Longest path: 111 steps · 856 total prerequisite topics

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