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Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation

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Maximum Likelihood EstimationFeasible GLS (FGLS) with Estimated Covariance Structure→→Simple Linear Regression Estimation
estimation maximum-likelihood misspecification

Core Idea

QML estimates models by maximizing a (possibly incorrect) log-likelihood function. Under mild regularity conditions, QML estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal even if the true distribution differs. The covariance matrix requires a sandwich adjustment accounting for likelihood misspecification.

Explainer

From your study of maximum likelihood estimation, you know the ideal story: specify the correct probability distribution for the data, write down the log-likelihood, maximize it, and obtain an estimator that is consistent, asymptotically efficient, and whose standard errors come from the inverse Fisher information matrix. Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) asks: what happens when you deliberately or inadvertently maximize the wrong likelihood? The answer, under certain conditions, is: less than you might fear.

The intuition starts with an analogy. Suppose you are trying to find the highest point in a mountain range and you use a slightly inaccurate map. If the map preserves the rough topology — if high points on the map correspond to high points in reality — you will still walk toward a peak, even if your route is not optimal. QMLE is similar: if the parametric model you maximize is related to the true data-generating process in the right way (specifically, if the moment conditions implied by the likelihood score are satisfied at the true parameter value), the QML estimator converges to the truth even though the full distributional assumption is wrong.

The most important case is the linear exponential family result: if your specified model correctly captures the conditional mean E[y|x], then maximizing any likelihood from the linear exponential family (Gaussian, Poisson, logistic, etc.) yields a consistent estimator of the mean parameters, regardless of the true distribution of y. This is why Poisson regression is routinely applied to non-count, non-negative outcomes like trade flows or innovation counts — the Poisson likelihood is used as a computational device, not as a genuine probabilistic claim. The coefficient estimates are consistent as long as the conditional mean model is right.

The cost of misspecification shows up in the covariance matrix. Under true MLE, Var(β̂) = −E[∂²ℓ/∂β∂β']⁻¹ (the inverse Hessian), and this equals the outer product formula E[score · score']. When the likelihood is misspecified, these two quantities no longer agree, so the standard MLE covariance formula is wrong. The correct covariance under QML is the sandwich estimator: (H⁻¹)(B)(H⁻¹), where H is the estimated Hessian and B is the estimated outer product of scores. This "bread-meat-bread" structure inflates the estimated variance to account for the fact that the likelihood's curvature no longer accurately reflects the sampling uncertainty. Using the wrong covariance — the standard MLE formula — would produce standard errors that are typically too small, leading to false precision.

Practice Questions 5 questions

Prerequisite Chain

Understanding Zero → The Number Zero → Counting to Five → Counting to 10 → Counting to 20 → Counting a Set of Objects Up to 20 → Cardinality: The Last Number Counted → Matching Numerals to Quantities → Subitizing Small Quantities → Addition Within 10 → Number Bonds to 10 → Addition Within 20 → Doubles and Near Doubles → Doubles Facts Within 10 → Near Doubles Facts Within 20 → Mental Math Strategies for Addition → Mental Math: Adding and Subtracting Tens → Addition Within 100 → Repeated Addition as Multiplication → Multiplication as Equal Groups → Multiplication: Arrays → Basic Multiplication Facts (0s, 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s) → Multiplication Facts Within 100 → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping (Measurement Division) → Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) Model → Division: Fair Sharing Model → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping → Basic Division Facts → Division Facts Within 100 → Multiplication and Division Fact Families → Relationship Between Multiplication and Division → Division Facts as Inverse of Multiplication → Remainders and Quotients in Division → Division Word Problems → Multi-Step Word Problems → Solving Multi-Step Word Problems → Multiplication Word Problems → Division Word Problems → Introduction to Long Division → Factors and Multiples → Prime and Composite Numbers → Equivalent Fractions → Relating Fractions and Decimals → Decimal Place Value → Integers and the Number Line → Comparing and Ordering Integers → Absolute Value → Adding Integers → Subtracting Integers → Multiplying Integers → Dividing Integers → Unit Rates → Proportions → Percent Concept → Converting Between Fractions, Decimals, and Percents → Operations with Rational Numbers → Two-Step Equations → Solving Multi-Step Equations → Equations with Variables on Both Sides → Angle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and Vertical → Parallel Lines and Transversals → Corresponding Angles → Alternate Interior Angles → Triangle Angle Sum Theorem → Exterior Angle Theorem → Triangle Inequality Theorem → Similar Triangles: AA Similarity → Similar Triangles: SSS and SAS Similarity → Proportions in Similar Triangles → Right Triangle Trigonometry Introduction → Sine, Cosine, and Tangent Ratios → Trigonometric Ratios Review → Radian Measure → Converting Between Degrees and Radians → The Unit Circle → Graphing Sine and Cosine → Graphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric Functions → Derivatives of Trigonometric Functions → Antiderivatives → Indefinite Integrals → Basic Integration Rules → Riemann Sums → Definite Integral Definition → Probability Density Functions and Continuous Distributions → Cumulative Distribution Functions → Continuous Random Variables → Probability Density Functions → Expected Value → Weak Law of Large Numbers → Probability Axioms and Rules → Conditional Probability → Independence of Events → Sampling Distributions → Standard Error of Estimators → Hypothesis Testing: Framework and Logic → P-values and Statistical Significance → Effect Size and Practical Significance → Hypothesis Testing: Framework and Logic → Z-Tests and T-Tests for Means → One-Sample Z-Test for Means → One-Sample and Two-Sample T-Tests → Inference in Linear Regression → Prediction Intervals in Regression → Linear Regression Basics → Residuals and Goodness of Fit (R²) → Simple (Bivariate) OLS Regression → Classical OLS Assumptions (Gauss-Markov) → Multiple Regression → Interpreting Regression Coefficients → Hypothesis Testing in Regression → F-Test and Joint Significance → White Test and Detection of Heteroskedasticity → Generalized Least Squares (GLS) for Non-Spherical Errors → Feasible GLS (FGLS) with Estimated Covariance Structure → Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Longest path: 117 steps · 658 total prerequisite topics

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