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Convexity and Non-Linear Price-Yield Relationships

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Duration and ConvexityBond Pricing→→Duration and Interest Rate Sensitivity Applications
bonds convexity interest-rate-sensitivity pricing

Core Idea

Bond prices are convex functions of yields: large yield changes violate the linear duration approximation. Convexity measures this curvature, and the full price change formula is: ΔP ≈ -D × Δy + (C/2) × (Δy)². Positive convexity means bond prices fall less when yields rise and rise more when yields fall, making long-duration bonds with high convexity especially attractive.

How It's Best Learned

Compare actual bond price changes from large yield moves against duration-only approximations to see where convexity becomes important.

Explainer

You already know that duration measures a bond's price sensitivity to small yield changes — specifically, the percentage price change is approximately equal to negative modified duration times the yield change. This linear approximation is excellent for small moves in yields. But the price-yield relationship for a bond is not actually linear; it is a curve. As yields move further from their starting value, the duration approximation accumulates error. Convexity measures the curvature of that price-yield curve and provides the second-order correction that fixes the approximation for large moves.

Mathematically, the full approximation is: ΔP/P ≈ −D × Δy + (C/2) × (Δy)². The first term is the duration effect — linear in the yield change. The second term is the convexity correction — it is always positive for a standard bond because C > 0 and (Δy)² > 0 regardless of the direction of the move. This positive second term has an important asymmetric implication: when yields rise (Δy > 0), the price falls *less* than duration alone predicts, because convexity partially offsets the loss. When yields fall (Δy < 0), the price rises *more* than duration predicts. Convexity therefore makes the bond's price response asymmetric: it gains more on yield declines than it loses on equal yield increases. This is sometimes called being "long convexity."

The magnitude of convexity matters more as the yield move gets larger. For a 10 basis point move, the (Δy)² term is tiny (0.001²) and convexity barely matters. For a 200 basis point move, (Δy)² = 0.04 — four times the (0.01)² of a 100bp move — and convexity becomes material. This is why convexity is most practically important when yields are volatile or when you need to hedge large positions. In calm markets with small daily moves, managing duration is sufficient; in volatile markets or crisis periods, ignoring convexity leads to significant hedging errors.

Long-duration bonds typically have high convexity, and investors pay for it. A zero-coupon bond with 30-year maturity has extreme convexity — its price-yield curve curves sharply. Bonds with negative convexity — like callable bonds, where the issuer has the right to redeem them early — behave differently: as yields fall, the call option caps price appreciation because the issuer will redeem at par. Mortgage-backed securities exhibit negative convexity for the same reason (homeowners prepay when rates fall). Negative convexity means price gains when yields fall are capped while losses when yields rise are not — the opposite of the symmetric benefit of positive convexity. When comparing bonds with similar durations, positive convexity is a desirable property that commands a price premium.

Practice Questions 5 questions

Prerequisite Chain

Understanding Zero → The Number Zero → Counting to Five → Counting to 10 → Counting to 20 → Counting a Set of Objects Up to 20 → Cardinality: The Last Number Counted → Matching Numerals to Quantities → Subitizing Small Quantities → Addition Within 10 → Number Bonds to 10 → Addition Within 20 → Doubles and Near Doubles → Doubles Facts Within 10 → Near Doubles Facts Within 20 → Mental Math Strategies for Addition → Mental Math: Adding and Subtracting Tens → Addition Within 100 → Repeated Addition as Multiplication → Multiplication as Equal Groups → Multiplication: Arrays → Basic Multiplication Facts (0s, 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s) → Multiplication Facts Within 100 → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping (Measurement Division) → Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) Model → Division: Fair Sharing Model → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping → Basic Division Facts → Division Facts Within 100 → Multiplication and Division Fact Families → Relationship Between Multiplication and Division → Division Facts as Inverse of Multiplication → Remainders and Quotients in Division → Division Word Problems → Multi-Step Word Problems → Solving Multi-Step Word Problems → Multiplication Word Problems → Division Word Problems → Introduction to Long Division → Factors and Multiples → Prime and Composite Numbers → Equivalent Fractions → Relating Fractions and Decimals → Decimal Place Value → Integers and the Number Line → Comparing and Ordering Integers → Absolute Value → Adding Integers → Subtracting Integers → Multiplying Integers → Dividing Integers → Unit Rates → Proportions → Percent Concept → Converting Between Fractions, Decimals, and Percents → Operations with Rational Numbers → Two-Step Equations → Solving Multi-Step Equations → Equations with Variables on Both Sides → Literal Equations → Slope-Intercept Form → Point-Slope Form → Writing Linear Equations → Parallel and Perpendicular Line Slopes → Graphing Linear Equations → Piecewise Functions → Step Functions → Composition of Functions → Inverse Functions → Radical Functions and Graphs → Rational Exponents → Exponential Functions and Graphs → Exponential Growth and Decay → Time Value of Money → Future Value and Compounding → Annuities and Perpetuities → Bond Pricing → Yield to Maturity → Duration and Convexity → Convexity and Non-Linear Price-Yield Relationships

Longest path: 82 steps · 363 total prerequisite topics

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