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Graphical Diagnostics: Residual Plots and QQ Plots

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Regression Diagnostics and Residual AnalysisResiduals and Goodness of Fit (R²)Breusch-Godfrey Test for Serial CorrelationMulticollinearity: Detection Using VIF
diagnostics residuals visualization

Core Idea

Residual plots (vs. fitted values, scale-location) visually detect heteroskedasticity, nonlinearity, and outliers. QQ plots compare residuals to a normal distribution. These informal checks complement and motivate formal statistical tests.

Explainer

From your work on regression diagnostics and residuals, you know that OLS residuals eᵢ = yᵢ − ŷᵢ capture what the model leaves unexplained. The formal OLS assumptions — linearity, homoskedasticity, normality, independence — are all claims about how those residuals should behave. Graphical diagnostic tools are the fastest way to check whether the residuals actually look the way the model says they should. The core idea is visual pattern recognition: if the model is correctly specified, residuals should look like white noise. Any pattern you see is evidence of a violation.

The residuals vs. fitted values plot is the most universally useful diagnostic. Plot each residual on the y-axis against its corresponding fitted value ŷᵢ on the x-axis. Under a correctly specified model with homoskedastic errors, you should see a horizontal cloud of points symmetrically scattered around zero — no curvature, no fanning, no outlier clusters. A U-shaped or arched pattern signals nonlinearity: the model's functional form is wrong, and a quadratic or log transformation of a variable may be needed. A fan shape — residuals spreading out as ŷ increases — is the hallmark of heteroskedasticity, where error variance grows with the fitted value. Both violations matter because they affect inference, not just fit.

The scale-location plot (also called the spread-location plot) is a refined version for detecting heteroskedasticity. It plots the square root of absolute residuals against fitted values. By taking the square root, you focus on the scale of errors rather than their sign; a flat smooth line through this plot confirms constant variance. The QQ plot (quantile-quantile plot) targets normality. It ranks your residuals and plots each residual's quantile against the theoretical quantile from a standard normal distribution. If residuals are normally distributed, the points fall on a 45-degree line. Heavy tails produce S-curves; right skew produces an upward bow on the right side. For large samples, minor departures are usually harmless due to the central limit theorem, but severe departures — especially from very small samples — matter for t-tests on individual coefficients.

These plots earn their place because they often reveal problems that formal tests miss or obscure. A White test or Breusch-Pagan test gives you a p-value; a residual plot shows you *where* the problem is concentrated, which variable drives it, and whether it is a smooth structural issue or a few influential observations. Think of the formal tests as confirmatory — you look at the plot first to understand the shape of the problem, then run the test to quantify it. Building the habit of plotting residuals before interpreting any regression is one of the highest-leverage practices in applied econometrics.

Practice Questions 5 questions

Prerequisite Chain

Understanding ZeroThe Number ZeroCounting to FiveCounting to 10Counting to 20Counting a Set of Objects Up to 20Cardinality: The Last Number CountedMatching Numerals to QuantitiesSubitizing Small QuantitiesAddition Within 10Number Bonds to 10Addition Within 20Doubles and Near DoublesDoubles Facts Within 10Near Doubles Facts Within 20Mental Math Strategies for AdditionMental Math: Adding and Subtracting TensAddition Within 100Repeated Addition as MultiplicationMultiplication as Equal GroupsMultiplication: ArraysBasic Multiplication Facts (0s, 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s)Multiplication Facts Within 100Division as Equal SharingDivision as Grouping (Measurement Division)Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) ModelDivision: Fair Sharing ModelDivision as Equal SharingDivision as GroupingBasic Division FactsDivision Facts Within 100Multiplication and Division Fact FamiliesRelationship Between Multiplication and DivisionDivision Facts as Inverse of MultiplicationRemainders and Quotients in DivisionDivision Word ProblemsMulti-Step Word ProblemsSolving Multi-Step Word ProblemsMultiplication Word ProblemsDivision Word ProblemsIntroduction to Long DivisionFactors and MultiplesPrime and Composite NumbersEquivalent FractionsRelating Fractions and DecimalsDecimal Place ValueIntegers and the Number LineComparing and Ordering IntegersAbsolute ValueAdding IntegersSubtracting IntegersMultiplying IntegersDividing IntegersUnit RatesProportionsPercent ConceptConverting Between Fractions, Decimals, and PercentsOperations with Rational NumbersTwo-Step EquationsSolving Multi-Step EquationsEquations with Variables on Both SidesAngle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and VerticalParallel Lines and TransversalsCorresponding AnglesAlternate Interior AnglesTriangle Angle Sum TheoremExterior Angle TheoremTriangle Inequality TheoremSimilar Triangles: AA SimilaritySimilar Triangles: SSS and SAS SimilarityProportions in Similar TrianglesRight Triangle Trigonometry IntroductionSine, Cosine, and Tangent RatiosTrigonometric Ratios ReviewRadian MeasureConverting Between Degrees and RadiansThe Unit CircleGraphing Sine and CosineGraphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric FunctionsDerivatives of Trigonometric FunctionsAntiderivativesIndefinite IntegralsBasic Integration RulesRiemann SumsDefinite Integral DefinitionProbability Density Functions and Continuous DistributionsCumulative Distribution FunctionsContinuous Random VariablesProbability Density FunctionsExpected ValueWeak Law of Large NumbersProbability Axioms and RulesConditional ProbabilityIndependence of EventsSampling DistributionsStandard Error of EstimatorsHypothesis Testing: Framework and LogicP-values and Statistical SignificanceEffect Size and Practical SignificanceHypothesis Testing: Framework and LogicZ-Tests and T-Tests for MeansOne-Sample Z-Test for MeansOne-Sample and Two-Sample T-TestsInference in Linear RegressionPrediction Intervals in RegressionLinear Regression BasicsResiduals and Goodness of Fit (R²)Graphical Diagnostics: Residual Plots and QQ Plots

Longest path: 108 steps · 553 total prerequisite topics

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