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Graphical Diagnostics: Residual Plots and QQ Plots

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Regression Diagnostics and Residual AnalysisResiduals and Goodness of Fit (R²)→→Breusch-Godfrey Test for Serial CorrelationMulticollinearity: Detection Using VIF
diagnostics residuals visualization

Core Idea

Residual plots (vs. fitted values, scale-location) visually detect heteroskedasticity, nonlinearity, and outliers. QQ plots compare residuals to a normal distribution. These informal checks complement and motivate formal statistical tests.

Explainer

From your work on regression diagnostics and residuals, you know that OLS residuals eᵢ = yᵢ − ŷᵢ capture what the model leaves unexplained. The formal OLS assumptions — linearity, homoskedasticity, normality, independence — are all claims about how those residuals should behave. Graphical diagnostic tools are the fastest way to check whether the residuals actually look the way the model says they should. The core idea is visual pattern recognition: if the model is correctly specified, residuals should look like white noise. Any pattern you see is evidence of a violation.

The residuals vs. fitted values plot is the most universally useful diagnostic. Plot each residual on the y-axis against its corresponding fitted value ŷᵢ on the x-axis. Under a correctly specified model with homoskedastic errors, you should see a horizontal cloud of points symmetrically scattered around zero — no curvature, no fanning, no outlier clusters. A U-shaped or arched pattern signals nonlinearity: the model's functional form is wrong, and a quadratic or log transformation of a variable may be needed. A fan shape — residuals spreading out as ŷ increases — is the hallmark of heteroskedasticity, where error variance grows with the fitted value. Both violations matter because they affect inference, not just fit.

The scale-location plot (also called the spread-location plot) is a refined version for detecting heteroskedasticity. It plots the square root of absolute residuals against fitted values. By taking the square root, you focus on the scale of errors rather than their sign; a flat smooth line through this plot confirms constant variance. The QQ plot (quantile-quantile plot) targets normality. It ranks your residuals and plots each residual's quantile against the theoretical quantile from a standard normal distribution. If residuals are normally distributed, the points fall on a 45-degree line. Heavy tails produce S-curves; right skew produces an upward bow on the right side. For large samples, minor departures are usually harmless due to the central limit theorem, but severe departures — especially from very small samples — matter for t-tests on individual coefficients.

These plots earn their place because they often reveal problems that formal tests miss or obscure. A White test or Breusch-Pagan test gives you a p-value; a residual plot shows you *where* the problem is concentrated, which variable drives it, and whether it is a smooth structural issue or a few influential observations. Think of the formal tests as confirmatory — you look at the plot first to understand the shape of the problem, then run the test to quantify it. Building the habit of plotting residuals before interpreting any regression is one of the highest-leverage practices in applied econometrics.

Practice Questions 5 questions

Prerequisite Chain

Understanding Zero → The Number Zero → Counting to Five → Counting to 10 → Counting to 20 → Counting a Set of Objects Up to 20 → Cardinality: The Last Number Counted → Matching Numerals to Quantities → Subitizing Small Quantities → Addition Within 10 → Number Bonds to 10 → Addition Within 20 → Doubles and Near Doubles → Doubles Facts Within 10 → Near Doubles Facts Within 20 → Mental Math Strategies for Addition → Mental Math: Adding and Subtracting Tens → Addition Within 100 → Repeated Addition as Multiplication → Multiplication as Equal Groups → Multiplication: Arrays → Basic Multiplication Facts (0s, 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s) → Multiplication Facts Within 100 → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping (Measurement Division) → Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) Model → Division: Fair Sharing Model → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping → Basic Division Facts → Division Facts Within 100 → Multiplication and Division Fact Families → Relationship Between Multiplication and Division → Division Facts as Inverse of Multiplication → Remainders and Quotients in Division → Division Word Problems → Multi-Step Word Problems → Solving Multi-Step Word Problems → Multiplication Word Problems → Division Word Problems → Introduction to Long Division → Factors and Multiples → Prime and Composite Numbers → Equivalent Fractions → Relating Fractions and Decimals → Decimal Place Value → Integers and the Number Line → Comparing and Ordering Integers → Absolute Value → Adding Integers → Subtracting Integers → Multiplying Integers → Dividing Integers → Unit Rates → Proportions → Percent Concept → Converting Between Fractions, Decimals, and Percents → Operations with Rational Numbers → Two-Step Equations → Solving Multi-Step Equations → Equations with Variables on Both Sides → Angle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and Vertical → Parallel Lines and Transversals → Corresponding Angles → Alternate Interior Angles → Triangle Angle Sum Theorem → Exterior Angle Theorem → Triangle Inequality Theorem → Similar Triangles: AA Similarity → Similar Triangles: SSS and SAS Similarity → Proportions in Similar Triangles → Right Triangle Trigonometry Introduction → Sine, Cosine, and Tangent Ratios → Trigonometric Ratios Review → Radian Measure → Converting Between Degrees and Radians → The Unit Circle → Graphing Sine and Cosine → Graphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric Functions → Derivatives of Trigonometric Functions → Antiderivatives → Indefinite Integrals → Basic Integration Rules → Riemann Sums → Definite Integral Definition → Probability Density Functions and Continuous Distributions → Cumulative Distribution Functions → Continuous Random Variables → Probability Density Functions → Expected Value → Weak Law of Large Numbers → Probability Axioms and Rules → Conditional Probability → Independence of Events → Sampling Distributions → Standard Error of Estimators → Hypothesis Testing: Framework and Logic → P-values and Statistical Significance → Effect Size and Practical Significance → Hypothesis Testing: Framework and Logic → Z-Tests and T-Tests for Means → One-Sample Z-Test for Means → One-Sample and Two-Sample T-Tests → Inference in Linear Regression → Prediction Intervals in Regression → Linear Regression Basics → Residuals and Goodness of Fit (R²) → Graphical Diagnostics: Residual Plots and QQ Plots

Longest path: 108 steps · 553 total prerequisite topics

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