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Breusch-Godfrey Test for Serial Correlation

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F-Test and Joint SignificanceSerial Correlation (Autocorrelation) in Regression+5 more→→Multicollinearity: Detection Using VIF
serial-correlation testing diagnostics

Core Idea

The Breusch-Godfrey test detects serial correlation of any order by regressing residuals on lagged residuals and original regressors, then testing joint significance of the lagged residuals. This extends the Durbin-Watson test to higher-order autocorrelation and higher-order lags, providing a flexible diagnostic tool.

Explainer

You already know from your study of serial correlation that OLS residuals becoming predictable from their own past is a serious diagnostic problem — it means the error terms are not independent draws, which inflates standard errors and distorts inference. The Durbin-Watson test you may have encountered handles the simplest case: AR(1) serial correlation, where each residual correlates only with the one immediately before it. But economic time series often carry memory across multiple periods. A shock today may reverberate for three or four quarters. The Breusch-Godfrey test is designed to catch exactly that.

The procedure starts from your estimated OLS residuals — the leftover variation your model couldn't explain. The key insight is that if those residuals carry genuine serial structure, they should be predictable from their own lags. So the test runs an auxiliary regression: regress the residuals ê_t on the original regressors from your main model plus p lagged residuals (ê_{t-1}, ê_{t-2}, ..., ê_{t-p}). The original regressors are included to remove any mechanical correlation induced by lagged dependent variables that may appear in the main equation — this is why Breusch-Godfrey improves on Durbin-Watson, which is invalid in that setting.

The test statistic follows from your F-test prerequisite. The null hypothesis H₀ is that all p lagged residual coefficients are jointly zero — meaning no serial correlation up to order p. You compute the F-statistic (or equivalently, n times the R² of the auxiliary regression, which is asymptotically χ²(p)) and compare to the critical value. Rejection means at least one lag carries predictive power, confirming serial correlation. Failure to reject suggests the residuals are approximately white noise up to the order you tested.

Choosing p requires judgment. A natural starting point is the data frequency: quarterly data might suggest testing up to order 4 (one year of lags), annual data up to 2 or 3. Testing too few lags misses high-order autocorrelation; testing too many burns degrees of freedom unnecessarily. Many practitioners run the test at multiple values of p and look for consistency. When serial correlation is detected, the appropriate remedy depends on its source: if it reflects a misspecified dynamic model, add lags of the dependent variable; if it reflects pure disturbance autocorrelation, switch to Newey-West heteroskedasticity-and-autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) standard errors rather than refitting the conditional mean.

Practice Questions 5 questions

Prerequisite Chain

Understanding Zero → The Number Zero → Counting to Five → Counting to 10 → Counting to 20 → Counting a Set of Objects Up to 20 → Cardinality: The Last Number Counted → Matching Numerals to Quantities → Subitizing Small Quantities → Addition Within 10 → Number Bonds to 10 → Addition Within 20 → Doubles and Near Doubles → Doubles Facts Within 10 → Near Doubles Facts Within 20 → Mental Math Strategies for Addition → Mental Math: Adding and Subtracting Tens → Addition Within 100 → Repeated Addition as Multiplication → Multiplication as Equal Groups → Multiplication: Arrays → Basic Multiplication Facts (0s, 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s) → Multiplication Facts Within 100 → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping (Measurement Division) → Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) Model → Division: Fair Sharing Model → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping → Basic Division Facts → Division Facts Within 100 → Multiplication and Division Fact Families → Relationship Between Multiplication and Division → Division Facts as Inverse of Multiplication → Remainders and Quotients in Division → Division Word Problems → Multi-Step Word Problems → Solving Multi-Step Word Problems → Multiplication Word Problems → Division Word Problems → Introduction to Long Division → Factors and Multiples → Prime and Composite Numbers → Equivalent Fractions → Relating Fractions and Decimals → Decimal Place Value → Integers and the Number Line → Comparing and Ordering Integers → Absolute Value → Adding Integers → Subtracting Integers → Multiplying Integers → Dividing Integers → Unit Rates → Proportions → Percent Concept → Converting Between Fractions, Decimals, and Percents → Operations with Rational Numbers → Two-Step Equations → Solving Multi-Step Equations → Equations with Variables on Both Sides → Angle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and Vertical → Parallel Lines and Transversals → Corresponding Angles → Alternate Interior Angles → Triangle Angle Sum Theorem → Exterior Angle Theorem → Triangle Inequality Theorem → Similar Triangles: AA Similarity → Similar Triangles: SSS and SAS Similarity → Proportions in Similar Triangles → Right Triangle Trigonometry Introduction → Sine, Cosine, and Tangent Ratios → Trigonometric Ratios Review → Radian Measure → Converting Between Degrees and Radians → The Unit Circle → Graphing Sine and Cosine → Graphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric Functions → Derivatives of Trigonometric Functions → Antiderivatives → Indefinite Integrals → Basic Integration Rules → Riemann Sums → Definite Integral Definition → Probability Density Functions and Continuous Distributions → Cumulative Distribution Functions → Continuous Random Variables → Probability Density Functions → Expected Value → Weak Law of Large Numbers → Probability Axioms and Rules → Conditional Probability → Independence of Events → Sampling Distributions → Standard Error of Estimators → Hypothesis Testing: Framework and Logic → P-values and Statistical Significance → Effect Size and Practical Significance → Hypothesis Testing: Framework and Logic → Z-Tests and T-Tests for Means → One-Sample Z-Test for Means → One-Sample and Two-Sample T-Tests → Inference in Linear Regression → Prediction Intervals in Regression → Linear Regression Basics → Residuals and Goodness of Fit (R²) → Simple (Bivariate) OLS Regression → Classical OLS Assumptions (Gauss-Markov) → Multiple Regression → Interpreting Regression Coefficients → Hypothesis Testing in Regression → F-Test and Joint Significance → R-Squared and Model Fit → Multicollinearity → Variance Inflation Factor and Multicollinearity Diagnosis → Breusch-Godfrey Test for Serial Correlation

Longest path: 117 steps · 877 total prerequisite topics

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