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Breusch-Godfrey Test for Serial Correlation

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F-Test and Joint SignificanceSerial Correlation (Autocorrelation) in Regression+5 moreMulticollinearity: Detection Using VIF
serial-correlation testing diagnostics

Core Idea

The Breusch-Godfrey test detects serial correlation of any order by regressing residuals on lagged residuals and original regressors, then testing joint significance of the lagged residuals. This extends the Durbin-Watson test to higher-order autocorrelation and higher-order lags, providing a flexible diagnostic tool.

Explainer

You already know from your study of serial correlation that OLS residuals becoming predictable from their own past is a serious diagnostic problem — it means the error terms are not independent draws, which inflates standard errors and distorts inference. The Durbin-Watson test you may have encountered handles the simplest case: AR(1) serial correlation, where each residual correlates only with the one immediately before it. But economic time series often carry memory across multiple periods. A shock today may reverberate for three or four quarters. The Breusch-Godfrey test is designed to catch exactly that.

The procedure starts from your estimated OLS residuals — the leftover variation your model couldn't explain. The key insight is that if those residuals carry genuine serial structure, they should be predictable from their own lags. So the test runs an auxiliary regression: regress the residuals ê_t on the original regressors from your main model plus p lagged residuals (ê_{t-1}, ê_{t-2}, ..., ê_{t-p}). The original regressors are included to remove any mechanical correlation induced by lagged dependent variables that may appear in the main equation — this is why Breusch-Godfrey improves on Durbin-Watson, which is invalid in that setting.

The test statistic follows from your F-test prerequisite. The null hypothesis H₀ is that all p lagged residual coefficients are jointly zero — meaning no serial correlation up to order p. You compute the F-statistic (or equivalently, n times the R² of the auxiliary regression, which is asymptotically χ²(p)) and compare to the critical value. Rejection means at least one lag carries predictive power, confirming serial correlation. Failure to reject suggests the residuals are approximately white noise up to the order you tested.

Choosing p requires judgment. A natural starting point is the data frequency: quarterly data might suggest testing up to order 4 (one year of lags), annual data up to 2 or 3. Testing too few lags misses high-order autocorrelation; testing too many burns degrees of freedom unnecessarily. Many practitioners run the test at multiple values of p and look for consistency. When serial correlation is detected, the appropriate remedy depends on its source: if it reflects a misspecified dynamic model, add lags of the dependent variable; if it reflects pure disturbance autocorrelation, switch to Newey-West heteroskedasticity-and-autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) standard errors rather than refitting the conditional mean.

Practice Questions 5 questions

Prerequisite Chain

Understanding ZeroThe Number ZeroCounting to FiveCounting to 10Counting to 20Counting a Set of Objects Up to 20Cardinality: The Last Number CountedMatching Numerals to QuantitiesSubitizing Small QuantitiesAddition Within 10Number Bonds to 10Addition Within 20Doubles and Near DoublesDoubles Facts Within 10Near Doubles Facts Within 20Mental Math Strategies for AdditionMental Math: Adding and Subtracting TensAddition Within 100Repeated Addition as MultiplicationMultiplication as Equal GroupsMultiplication: ArraysBasic Multiplication Facts (0s, 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s)Multiplication Facts Within 100Division as Equal SharingDivision as Grouping (Measurement Division)Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) ModelDivision: Fair Sharing ModelDivision as Equal SharingDivision as GroupingBasic Division FactsDivision Facts Within 100Multiplication and Division Fact FamiliesRelationship Between Multiplication and DivisionDivision Facts as Inverse of MultiplicationRemainders and Quotients in DivisionDivision Word ProblemsMulti-Step Word ProblemsSolving Multi-Step Word ProblemsMultiplication Word ProblemsDivision Word ProblemsIntroduction to Long DivisionFactors and MultiplesPrime and Composite NumbersEquivalent FractionsRelating Fractions and DecimalsDecimal Place ValueIntegers and the Number LineComparing and Ordering IntegersAbsolute ValueAdding IntegersSubtracting IntegersMultiplying IntegersDividing IntegersUnit RatesProportionsPercent ConceptConverting Between Fractions, Decimals, and PercentsOperations with Rational NumbersTwo-Step EquationsSolving Multi-Step EquationsEquations with Variables on Both SidesAngle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and VerticalParallel Lines and TransversalsCorresponding AnglesAlternate Interior AnglesTriangle Angle Sum TheoremExterior Angle TheoremTriangle Inequality TheoremSimilar Triangles: AA SimilaritySimilar Triangles: SSS and SAS SimilarityProportions in Similar TrianglesRight Triangle Trigonometry IntroductionSine, Cosine, and Tangent RatiosTrigonometric Ratios ReviewRadian MeasureConverting Between Degrees and RadiansThe Unit CircleGraphing Sine and CosineGraphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric FunctionsDerivatives of Trigonometric FunctionsAntiderivativesIndefinite IntegralsBasic Integration RulesRiemann SumsDefinite Integral DefinitionProbability Density Functions and Continuous DistributionsCumulative Distribution FunctionsContinuous Random VariablesProbability Density FunctionsExpected ValueWeak Law of Large NumbersProbability Axioms and RulesConditional ProbabilityIndependence of EventsSampling DistributionsStandard Error of EstimatorsHypothesis Testing: Framework and LogicP-values and Statistical SignificanceEffect Size and Practical SignificanceHypothesis Testing: Framework and LogicZ-Tests and T-Tests for MeansOne-Sample Z-Test for MeansOne-Sample and Two-Sample T-TestsInference in Linear RegressionPrediction Intervals in RegressionLinear Regression BasicsResiduals and Goodness of Fit (R²)Simple (Bivariate) OLS RegressionClassical OLS Assumptions (Gauss-Markov)Multiple RegressionInterpreting Regression CoefficientsHypothesis Testing in RegressionF-Test and Joint SignificanceR-Squared and Model FitMulticollinearityVariance Inflation Factor and Multicollinearity DiagnosisBreusch-Godfrey Test for Serial Correlation

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