Stationary Distributions

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stationary-distributions markov-chains probability

Core Idea

A probability distribution π is stationary for a Markov chain with transition kernel P if π = πP, or equivalently ∫π(dx)P(x, A) = π(A) for all measurable A. For irreducible aperiodic chains, the distribution converges to a unique stationary distribution. Stationary distributions characterize long-run behavior.

Explainer

From your study of Markov chains, you know the chain's state at each step depends only on the current state (the Markov property), and the transition matrix P describes how probability flows between states. If you start in state i, you are in state j after one step with probability P_{ij}. If you start with a distribution π₀ over states (a row vector), then after one step the distribution is π₀P, after two steps it is π₀P², and so on. A stationary distribution π is one that doesn't change: πP = π. If you start in a stationary distribution, you stay there forever.

The stationary distribution is a fixed point of the map π ↦ πP. In matrix terms, π is a left eigenvector of P with eigenvalue 1. Since every row of P sums to 1 (each state transitions somewhere), it is guaranteed that 1 is an eigenvalue — so a stationary distribution always exists (for finite chains). The interesting question is whether it is *unique* and whether the chain *converges* to it from any starting distribution. For a finite, irreducible (every state reachable from every other) and aperiodic (no cyclic trapping) chain, the answer to both is yes. This is the fundamental convergence theorem: P^n_{ij} → π_j as n → ∞, regardless of the starting state i.

A powerful sufficient condition for finding stationary distributions is detailed balance: π_i P_{ij} = π_j P_{ji} for all pairs i, j. This says the flow of probability from i to j equals the flow from j to i — a microscopic equilibrium. Any distribution satisfying detailed balance is automatically stationary (summing over j on both sides gives πP = π). Detailed balance is easier to verify than the full stationary equation and is the foundation for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, where you *design* a transition kernel whose stationary distribution is a target distribution you want to sample from.

For chains with infinitely many states (continuous state spaces), the story is more subtle — existence requires additional conditions, and convergence may be much slower. But the core intuition persists: the stationary distribution is the long-run fraction of time spent in each state, the "equilibrium" that the chain approaches. If you run a Markov chain long enough (past its mixing time), any sample from it looks approximately like a draw from π. This is the insight that makes Markov chains practical: if direct sampling from a distribution is hard, you can often construct a chain with that distribution as its stationary distribution and sample by simulating the chain.

Practice Questions 5 questions

Prerequisite Chain

Counting to 10Counting to 20Understanding ZeroThe Number ZeroCounting to FiveOne-to-One CorrespondenceCombining Small Groups Within 5Addition Within 10Addition Within 20Two-Digit Addition Without RegroupingTwo-Digit Addition with RegroupingAddition Within 100Repeated Addition as MultiplicationMultiplication Facts Within 100Division as Equal SharingDivision as Grouping (Measurement Division)Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) ModelDivision: Fair Sharing ModelDivision as Equal SharingDivision as GroupingBasic Division FactsDivision Facts Within 100Two-Digit by One-Digit DivisionDivision with RemaindersRemainders and Quotients in DivisionDivision Word ProblemsIntroduction to Long DivisionFactors and MultiplesPrime and Composite NumbersEquivalent FractionsRelating Fractions and DecimalsDecimal Place ValueReading and Writing DecimalsComparing and Ordering DecimalsAdding and Subtracting DecimalsMultiplying DecimalsDividing DecimalsDividing FractionsMixed Number ArithmeticOrder of OperationsInteger Order of OperationsVariable ExpressionsCombining Like TermsOne-Step EquationsTwo-Step EquationsSolving Multi-Step EquationsEquations with Variables on Both SidesAngle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and VerticalParallel Lines and TransversalsCorresponding AnglesAlternate Interior AnglesTriangle Angle Sum TheoremExterior Angle TheoremTriangle Inequality TheoremSimilar Triangles: AA SimilaritySimilar Triangles: SSS and SAS SimilarityProportions in Similar TrianglesRight Triangle Trigonometry IntroductionTrigonometric Ratios ReviewRadian MeasureConverting Between Degrees and RadiansThe Unit CircleGraphing Sine and CosineGraphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric FunctionsDerivatives of Trigonometric FunctionsAntiderivativesIndefinite IntegralsBasic Integration RulesRiemann SumsDefinite Integral DefinitionFundamental Theorem of Calculus Part 1Fundamental Theorem of Calculus Part 2U-SubstitutionPartial Fraction Decomposition for IntegrationImproper Integrals - ConvergenceIntegral TestP-SeriesComparison TestLimit Comparison TestAbsolute vs. Conditional ConvergencePower SeriesTaylor PolynomialsTaylor SeriesMoment Generating FunctionsCharacteristic FunctionsConvergence in DistributionStationary Distributions

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