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Stationary Distributions

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Markov ChainsConvergence in Distribution→→Convergence of Markov Chains
stationary-distributions markov-chains probability

Core Idea

A probability distribution π is stationary for a Markov chain with transition kernel P if π = πP, or equivalently ∫π(dx)P(x, A) = π(A) for all measurable A. For irreducible aperiodic chains, the distribution converges to a unique stationary distribution. Stationary distributions characterize long-run behavior.

Explainer

From your study of Markov chains, you know the chain's state at each step depends only on the current state (the Markov property), and the transition matrix P describes how probability flows between states. If you start in state i, you are in state j after one step with probability P_{ij}. If you start with a distribution π₀ over states (a row vector), then after one step the distribution is π₀P, after two steps it is π₀P², and so on. A stationary distribution π is one that doesn't change: πP = π. If you start in a stationary distribution, you stay there forever.

The stationary distribution is a fixed point of the map π ↦ πP. In matrix terms, π is a left eigenvector of P with eigenvalue 1. Since every row of P sums to 1 (each state transitions somewhere), it is guaranteed that 1 is an eigenvalue — so a stationary distribution always exists (for finite chains). The interesting question is whether it is *unique* and whether the chain *converges* to it from any starting distribution. For a finite, irreducible (every state reachable from every other) and aperiodic (no cyclic trapping) chain, the answer to both is yes. This is the fundamental convergence theorem: Pn_{ij} → π_j as n → ∞, regardless of the starting state i.

A powerful sufficient condition for finding stationary distributions is detailed balance: π_i P_{ij} = π_j P_{ji} for all pairs i, j. This says the flow of probability from i to j equals the flow from j to i — a microscopic equilibrium. Any distribution satisfying detailed balance is automatically stationary (summing over j on both sides gives πP = π). Detailed balance is easier to verify than the full stationary equation and is the foundation for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, where you *design* a transition kernel whose stationary distribution is a target distribution you want to sample from.

For chains with infinitely many states (continuous state spaces), the story is more subtle — existence requires additional conditions, and convergence may be much slower. But the core intuition persists: the stationary distribution is the long-run fraction of time spent in each state, the "equilibrium" that the chain approaches. If you run a Markov chain long enough (past its mixing time), any sample from it looks approximately like a draw from π. This is the insight that makes Markov chains practical: if direct sampling from a distribution is hard, you can often construct a chain with that distribution as its stationary distribution and sample by simulating the chain.

Practice Questions 5 questions

Prerequisite Chain

Understanding Zero → The Number Zero → Counting to Five → Counting to 10 → Counting to 20 → Counting a Set of Objects Up to 20 → Cardinality: The Last Number Counted → Matching Numerals to Quantities → Subitizing Small Quantities → Addition Within 10 → Number Bonds to 10 → Addition Within 20 → Doubles and Near Doubles → Doubles Facts Within 10 → Near Doubles Facts Within 20 → Mental Math Strategies for Addition → Mental Math: Adding and Subtracting Tens → Addition Within 100 → Repeated Addition as Multiplication → Multiplication as Equal Groups → Multiplication: Arrays → Basic Multiplication Facts (0s, 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s) → Multiplication Facts Within 100 → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping (Measurement Division) → Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) Model → Division: Fair Sharing Model → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping → Basic Division Facts → Division Facts Within 100 → Multiplication and Division Fact Families → Relationship Between Multiplication and Division → Division Facts as Inverse of Multiplication → Remainders and Quotients in Division → Division Word Problems → Multi-Step Word Problems → Solving Multi-Step Word Problems → Multiplication Word Problems → Division Word Problems → Introduction to Long Division → Factors and Multiples → Prime and Composite Numbers → Equivalent Fractions → Relating Fractions and Decimals → Decimal Place Value → Integers and the Number Line → Comparing and Ordering Integers → Absolute Value → Adding Integers → Subtracting Integers → Multiplying Integers → Dividing Integers → Unit Rates → Proportions → Percent Concept → Converting Between Fractions, Decimals, and Percents → Operations with Rational Numbers → Two-Step Equations → Solving Multi-Step Equations → Equations with Variables on Both Sides → Angle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and Vertical → Parallel Lines and Transversals → Corresponding Angles → Alternate Interior Angles → Triangle Angle Sum Theorem → Exterior Angle Theorem → Triangle Inequality Theorem → Similar Triangles: AA Similarity → Similar Triangles: SSS and SAS Similarity → Proportions in Similar Triangles → Right Triangle Trigonometry Introduction → Sine, Cosine, and Tangent Ratios → Trigonometric Ratios Review → Radian Measure → Converting Between Degrees and Radians → The Unit Circle → Graphing Sine and Cosine → Graphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric Functions → Derivatives of Trigonometric Functions → Antiderivatives → Indefinite Integrals → Basic Integration Rules → Riemann Sums → Definite Integral Definition → Fundamental Theorem of Calculus Part 1 → Fundamental Theorem of Calculus Part 2 → U-Substitution → Partial Fraction Decomposition for Integration → Improper Integrals - Convergence → Integral Test → P-Series → Comparison Test → Limit Comparison Test → Series Convergence Test Strategy → Power Series → Radius and Interval of Convergence → Taylor Series → Moment Generating Functions → Characteristic Functions → Convergence in Distribution → Stationary Distributions

Longest path: 102 steps · 638 total prerequisite topics

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