Confidence Intervals (Rigorous Theory)

Core Idea

A confidence interval [L(X), U(X)] has level 1-α if P(θ ∈ [L,U]) = 1-α for all θ (exact) or approximately (asymptotic). Intervals are constructed by inverting hypothesis tests or using pivotal quantities. Asymptotic CIs rely on the CLT and estimator asymptotics. Confidence is frequentist; different from Bayesian credible intervals.

Explainer

From the asymptotic normality of the MLE, you know that under regularity conditions √n(θ̂ - θ) →_d N(0, I(θ)^-1), where I(θ) is the Fisher information. This gives the building block for interval estimation: an approximate normal pivot. A confidence interval [L(X), U(X)] is not a fixed interval with a probability attached to it — it is a random interval, a function of the data X, defined so that the probability of covering the true θ meets a specified level.

The formal definition makes the frequentist interpretation precise. We say [L(X), U(X)] has coverage probability 1-α if P_θ(θ ∈ [L(X), U(X)]) = 1-α for all θ in the parameter space. The subscript θ means: we are computing probability over the distribution of X when θ is the true parameter. In repeated sampling — draw a new dataset, compute a new interval, repeat — exactly 100(1-α)% of those intervals contain the true θ. No single computed interval carries a probability: once data is observed, L and U are fixed numbers and θ is a fixed (unknown) number. Either θ is in [L, U] or it is not. The 1-α confidence level describes the procedure's long-run performance, not any individual interval's uncertainty.

There are two standard constructions. The pivotal quantity approach finds a function Q(X, θ) whose distribution does not depend on θ, then inverts its probability statement into an interval. For example, if Q = (X̄ - μ)/(s/√n) ~ t_{n-1}, then P(-t_{α/2} ≤ Q ≤ t_{α/2}) = 1-α rearranges to P(X̄ - t_{α/2}·s/√n ≤ μ ≤ X̄ + t_{α/2}·s/√n) = 1-α. The test inversion approach is equivalent in theory: the 1-α confidence set for θ is exactly the set of parameter values θ₀ that would not be rejected by a level-α test at the observed data. These two constructions produce the same intervals and illuminate their connection to hypothesis testing.

The Bayesian credible interval looks superficially similar but is philosophically distinct. It treats θ as a random variable with a prior distribution, and gives P(θ ∈ interval | data) = 1-α using the posterior distribution. A 95% credible interval means exactly what naive intuition expects — 95% posterior probability — while a 95% confidence interval means long-run coverage. In practice the intervals often have similar numerical endpoints, especially in large samples or with diffuse priors. But they answer different questions: the frequentist confidence interval makes a claim about the procedure; the Bayesian credible interval makes a claim about the current posterior state of belief.