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Adjusted R-Squared for Model Comparison

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R-Squared: Goodness of FitHausman Test: Fixed Effects vs. Random Effects+1 moreInformation Criteria: AIC and BIC for Model Selection
model-comparison model-selection

Core Idea

Adjusted R² = 1 - ((RSS/(n-k-1)) / (TSS/(n-1))) penalizes adding regressors via a degrees-of-freedom adjustment. Unlike R², it can decrease when irrelevant variables are added, making it useful for comparing non-nested models with different regressor counts.

Explainer

From your study of R-squared (R²), you know it measures the fraction of total variation in the dependent variable explained by the regression model: R² = 1 − RSS/TSS, where RSS is the residual sum of squares and TSS is the total sum of squares. You also know its key weakness: R² can never decrease when you add another variable to the model, even if that variable is pure noise. This mechanical property means that R² always favors larger models, making it useless for deciding whether an additional regressor actually improves the model.

Adjusted R² fixes this by introducing a penalty for model complexity. The formula replaces the raw sums of squares with their degrees-of-freedom-corrected versions: Adjusted R² = 1 − ((RSS/(n−k−1)) / (TSS/(n−1))), where n is the sample size and k is the number of regressors. The denominator of the RSS term, n−k−1, shrinks as you add regressors, inflating the ratio RSS/(n−k−1) relative to the raw RSS. This means that adding a variable only improves adjusted R² if the reduction in RSS is large enough to offset the penalty from losing a degree of freedom. If you add a useless variable, RSS barely changes but n−k−1 decreases by one, and adjusted R² falls.

Think of it like a batting average analogy. Raw R² is like counting total hits without regard to how many at-bats you took — more at-bats (more variables) can only add hits (explained variation), never subtract them. Adjusted R² is like batting average itself: each additional at-bat (variable) must produce enough hits (variance explained) to maintain or improve the average. A variable that explains very little variation is like a weak at-bat that drags the average down.

In practice, you use adjusted R² to compare models with different numbers of regressors estimated on the same dataset. If Model A with three variables has an adjusted R² of 0.72 and Model B with five variables has an adjusted R² of 0.71, you prefer the simpler Model A — the two extra variables did not earn their keep. Note that adjusted R² can even be negative (when the model explains almost nothing and the penalty dominates), and it is only valid for comparing models with the same dependent variable. For more sophisticated model selection, especially with many candidate models, information criteria like AIC and BIC provide stronger theoretical foundations — but adjusted R² remains a practical, intuitive first tool for the common question of whether adding a variable helps or hurts your model.

Practice Questions 5 questions

Prerequisite Chain

Understanding ZeroThe Number ZeroCounting to FiveCounting to 10Counting to 20Counting a Set of Objects Up to 20Cardinality: The Last Number CountedMatching Numerals to QuantitiesSubitizing Small QuantitiesAddition Within 10Number Bonds to 10Addition Within 20Doubles and Near DoublesDoubles Facts Within 10Near Doubles Facts Within 20Mental Math Strategies for AdditionMental Math: Adding and Subtracting TensAddition Within 100Repeated Addition as MultiplicationMultiplication as Equal GroupsMultiplication: ArraysBasic Multiplication Facts (0s, 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s)Multiplication Facts Within 100Division as Equal SharingDivision as Grouping (Measurement Division)Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) ModelDivision: Fair Sharing ModelDivision as Equal SharingDivision as GroupingBasic Division FactsDivision Facts Within 100Multiplication and Division Fact FamiliesRelationship Between Multiplication and DivisionDivision Facts as Inverse of MultiplicationRemainders and Quotients in DivisionDivision Word ProblemsMulti-Step Word ProblemsSolving Multi-Step Word ProblemsMultiplication Word ProblemsDivision Word ProblemsIntroduction to Long DivisionFactors and MultiplesPrime and Composite NumbersEquivalent FractionsRelating Fractions and DecimalsDecimal Place ValueIntegers and the Number LineComparing and Ordering IntegersAbsolute ValueAdding IntegersSubtracting IntegersMultiplying IntegersDividing IntegersUnit RatesProportionsPercent ConceptConverting Between Fractions, Decimals, and PercentsOperations with Rational NumbersTwo-Step EquationsSolving Multi-Step EquationsEquations with Variables on Both SidesAngle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and VerticalParallel Lines and TransversalsCorresponding AnglesAlternate Interior AnglesTriangle Angle Sum TheoremExterior Angle TheoremTriangle Inequality TheoremSimilar Triangles: AA SimilaritySimilar Triangles: SSS and SAS SimilarityProportions in Similar TrianglesRight Triangle Trigonometry IntroductionSine, Cosine, and Tangent RatiosTrigonometric Ratios ReviewRadian MeasureConverting Between Degrees and RadiansThe Unit CircleGraphing Sine and CosineGraphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric FunctionsDerivatives of Trigonometric FunctionsAntiderivativesIndefinite IntegralsBasic Integration RulesRiemann SumsDefinite Integral DefinitionProbability Density Functions and Continuous DistributionsCumulative Distribution FunctionsContinuous Random VariablesProbability Density FunctionsExpected ValueWeak Law of Large NumbersProbability Axioms and RulesConditional ProbabilityIndependence of EventsSampling DistributionsStandard Error of EstimatorsHypothesis Testing: Framework and LogicP-values and Statistical SignificanceEffect Size and Practical SignificanceHypothesis Testing: Framework and LogicZ-Tests and T-Tests for MeansOne-Sample Z-Test for MeansOne-Sample and Two-Sample T-TestsInference in Linear RegressionPrediction Intervals in RegressionLinear Regression BasicsResiduals and Goodness of Fit (R²)Simple (Bivariate) OLS RegressionClassical OLS Assumptions (Gauss-Markov)Multiple RegressionInterpreting Regression CoefficientsHypothesis Testing in RegressionF-Test and Joint SignificanceR-Squared and Model FitOmitted Variable BiasCausal Inference and the Identification ProblemPotential Outcomes and the Rubin Causal ModelSelection BiasInstrumental VariablesDynamic Panel Models and Arellano-Bond/Blundell-Bond EstimationDynamic Panel Models: Arellano-Bond EstimatorFirst-Difference Estimator for Panel DataWithin Estimator (Fixed Effects) for Panel DataBetween and Random Effects Estimators for Panel DataHausman Test: Fixed Effects Versus Random EffectsHausman Test: Fixed Effects vs. Random EffectsAdjusted R-Squared for Model Comparison

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