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Murphyjitsu

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1,940prerequisites beneath it

Premortem Analysis The Planning Fallacy→

Core Idea

Murphyjitsu (from CFAR) is a mental simulation technique for stress-testing plans. For each step of your plan, ask: "Does this feel like the sort of plan that will work, or the sort of plan that will fail?" If your gut says it feels like it will fail, identify the most likely failure mode, modify the plan to address it, and repeat until the plan passes the gut check. The technique combines the premortem's failure-imagination with iterative plan repair. It leverages System 1's pattern-matching ability — your intuition often detects problems that your explicit reasoning has not surfaced. The name is a portmanteau of Murphy's Law and jujitsu: using the force of Murphy's Law ("what can go wrong will go wrong") to strengthen your plan rather than being defeated by it.

How It's Best Learned

Before your next important meeting, trip, or project deadline, walk through your plan step by step. At each step, ask "does this feel like it will work?" If not, identify the failure mode and fix it. Repeat until each step passes. Compare the revised plan to your original — the differences reveal your blind spots.

Common Misconceptions

Murphyjitsu is not about being paranoid — it is about systematically finding and fixing plan weaknesses before they manifest.
The technique does not require that you fix every possible failure mode — only the ones your gut flags as realistic.

Explainer

From premortem analysis, you know that imagining a project has already failed -- and then explaining why -- surfaces risks that optimism bias and social pressure would otherwise hide. Murphyjitsu, developed by CFAR (the Center for Applied Rationality), takes this insight and adds an iterative repair loop that transforms risk identification into actual plan improvement.

The technique works like this. You walk through your plan step by step, and at each step you ask a simple gut-check question: "Does this feel like the sort of step that will work, or the sort of step that will fail?" If your gut says it feels like it will fail, you stop and identify the most likely failure mode. Then -- and this is what distinguishes Murphyjitsu from a standard premortem -- you modify the plan to address that failure mode. After the modification, you ask the gut-check question again. You repeat this cycle -- identify failure, fix, re-check -- until every step passes the gut check. The name is a portmanteau of Murphy's Law ("what can go wrong will go wrong") and jujitsu (using your opponent's force to your advantage): instead of being defeated by Murphy's Law, you use it to strengthen your plan.

The technique's power comes from deliberately leveraging System 1 pattern-matching. Your intuition, shaped by years of experience, often detects problems that your explicit reasoning has not surfaced. A plan might look coherent on paper -- every step follows logically from the last -- yet still "feel off." That gut reaction is System 1 recognizing a pattern it has seen before: a plan that resembles other plans that failed. Murphyjitsu treats this feeling as a signal worth interrogating rather than dismissing. By asking "why does this feel like it will fail?", you translate an inarticulate intuition into a specific, addressable failure mode.

The practical result is a plan that has been stress-tested against your best intuitions about what typically goes wrong. Consider preparing for a conference talk. Your original plan might be: finish slides by Wednesday, do a practice run Thursday, present Friday. Murphyjitsu might surface that "finish slides by Wednesday" feels unrealistic given your other commitments (fix: block Tuesday afternoon for slides), that your practice run has no audience (fix: ask a colleague to listen), and that you have not tested the projector setup (fix: arrive 30 minutes early). Each fix is small, but the cumulative effect is a plan that accounts for the failure modes you would otherwise discover only when they materialized. The stopping criterion -- "every step passes the gut check" -- keeps the technique bounded and practical rather than spiraling into infinite risk cataloging.

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Prerequisite Chain

Understanding Zero → The Number Zero → Counting to Five → Counting to 10 → One-to-One Correspondence → Counting a Set of Objects Up to 20 → Cardinality: The Last Number Counted → Matching Numerals to Quantities → Subitizing Small Quantities → Addition Within 10 → Making 10 as an Addition Strategy → Addition Within 20 → Doubles and Near Doubles → Doubles Facts Within 10 → Near Doubles Facts Within 20 → Mental Math Strategies for Addition → Mental Math: Adding and Subtracting Tens → Addition Within 100 → Repeated Addition as Multiplication → Multiplication as Equal Groups → Multiplication: Arrays → Basic Multiplication Facts (0s, 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s) → Multiplication Facts Within 100 → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping (Measurement Division) → Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) Model → Division: Fair Sharing Model → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping → Basic Division Facts → Division Facts Within 100 → Multiplication and Division Fact Families → Relationship Between Multiplication and Division → Division Facts as Inverse of Multiplication → Remainders and Quotients in Division → Division Word Problems → Multi-Step Word Problems → Solving Multi-Step Word Problems → Multiplication Word Problems → Division Word Problems → Introduction to Long Division → Factors and Multiples → Prime and Composite Numbers → Equivalent Fractions → Relating Fractions and Decimals → Decimal Place Value → Integers and the Number Line → Comparing and Ordering Integers → Absolute Value → Adding Integers → Subtracting Integers → Multiplying Integers → Dividing Integers → Unit Rates → Proportions → Percent Concept → Converting Between Fractions, Decimals, and Percents → Operations with Rational Numbers → Two-Step Equations → Solving Multi-Step Equations → Equations with Variables on Both Sides → Angle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and Vertical → Parallel Lines and Transversals → Corresponding Angles → Alternate Interior Angles → Triangle Angle Sum Theorem → Exterior Angle Theorem → Triangle Inequality Theorem → Similar Triangles: AA Similarity → Similar Triangles: SSS and SAS Similarity → Proportions in Similar Triangles → Right Triangle Trigonometry Introduction → Sine, Cosine, and Tangent Ratios → Trigonometric Ratios Review → Radian Measure → Converting Between Degrees and Radians → The Unit Circle → Graphing Sine and Cosine → Graphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric Functions → Derivatives of Trigonometric Functions → Antiderivatives → Iterated Integrals and Fubini's Theorem → Double Integrals in Cartesian Coordinates → Double Integrals in Polar Coordinates → Double Integrals in Polar Coordinates → Double Integrals: Definition and Setup → Iterated Integrals and Fubini's Theorem → Double Integrals over Rectangular Regions → Double Integrals over General Regions → Applications of Double Integrals: Area, Mass, and Moments → Triple Integrals in Cartesian Coordinates → Triple Integrals in Cylindrical and Spherical Coordinates → Change of Variables and the Jacobian Determinant → Applications of Triple Integrals: Volume and Mass → Vector Fields and Their Representations → Line Integrals of Vector Fields → Work and Circulation → Line Integrals of Scalar and Vector Functions → Fundamental Theorem for Line Integrals → Conservative Vector Fields → Conservative Vector Fields and Potential Functions → Curl and Divergence of Vector Fields → Curl and Divergence → Divergence Theorem → Electric Flux and Divergence Theorem → Gauss's Law: Integral Form and Meaning → Solving Problems with Gauss's Law → Conductors in Electrostatic Equilibrium → Capacitance and Capacitors → Dielectrics → Dielectric Constant and Relative Permittivity → Electric Field Inside Dielectric Materials → Dielectric Materials and Polarization → Dielectric Susceptibility and Permittivity → Energy Density in Electric Fields → Electric Current and Current Density → Electrical Resistance and Resistivity → Ohm's Law and Circuit Elements → Electromotive Force (EMF) and Batteries → Kirchhoff's Circuit Laws: Voltage and Current → DC Circuit Network Analysis Methods → Transient Response in RC Circuits → RC Circuits → LC and RLC Circuits → AC Circuits: Fundamentals → Impedance and Reactance → AC Power and Resonance → Electromagnetic Waves → Postulates of Special Relativity → Time Dilation → Length Contraction → Lorentz Transformation → Relativistic Velocity Addition → Relativistic Momentum and Energy → Mass-Energy Equivalence and E=mc² → Photons as Particles with Energy and Momentum → Planck-Einstein Relation: Energy and Frequency → Photoelectric Effect → The Photon: Light as Quanta → Compton Scattering → Wave-Particle Duality → de Broglie Wavelength → The Schrödinger Equation → State Vectors and Wavefunctions → Quantum Superposition → The Measurement Problem → Interpretations of Quantum Mechanics → Postulates of Quantum Mechanics → Observables and Quantum Operators → Commutators and Commutation Relations → Quantum Angular Momentum → Quantum Mechanical Treatment of Hydrogen → Solving the Schrödinger Equation for Hydrogen Atom → Quantum Numbers → Electron Configuration → Periodic Trends → Covalent Bonding → Electronegativity and Bond Polarity → Ionic Bonding → Lewis Structures → VSEPR Theory and Molecular Geometry → Molecular Geometry and Electron Pair Geometry → Molecular Polarity and Dipole Moments → Intermolecular Forces → States of Matter and Phase Changes: Melting, Boiling, and Sublimation → Gas Laws and the Ideal Gas Equation → Gas Stoichiometry and Volume-Volume Calculations → Thermochemistry and Enthalpy → Heat Capacity and Calorimetry → Entropy and Molecular Disorder → Spontaneity and ΔG → Entropy and Gibbs Free Energy → Chemical Equilibrium → Acid-Base Chemistry → Weak Acid Ionization → Weak Base Ionization → Acid and Base Strength: Ka, Kb, and Ionization → Leaving Groups and Nucleofugality → SN2 Substitution Reactions → SN1 Substitution Reactions → E1 Elimination Reactions → Alcohols and Ethers: Structure, Properties, and Nomenclature → Reactions of Alcohols → Aldehydes and Ketones: Structure and Reactivity → Oxidation Reactions in Organic Chemistry → Oxidation of Alcohols to Aldehydes and Ketones → Aldehyde and Ketone Structure and Nomenclature → Nucleophilic Addition to Aldehydes and Ketones → Carboxylic Acids and Their Derivatives → IUPAC Nomenclature of Carbonyls and Carboxylic Acids → IUPAC Nomenclature of Alkenes → Electrophilic Addition to Alkenes → Aromaticity and Benzene → Electrophilic Aromatic Substitution (EAS) → Nucleophilic Aromatic Substitution (SNAr) → Nucleophilic Acyl Substitution → Amines: Structure, Basicity, and Reactions → Amine Reactivity: Nucleophilicity and Basicity → Amino Acid Structure and Properties → Peptide Bonds and Polypeptide Formation → Protein Primary Structure → Protein Secondary Structure → Protein Tertiary Structure → Enzyme Structure and Function → Transcription: DNA to RNA → RNA Types and Structure → RNA Structure and Intramolecular Base Pairing → RNA Processing and Splicing → Translation: RNA to Protein → Ribosomes: Protein Synthesis Machines → Translation: Initiation and Elongation → Post-Translational Modifications → Proteasomal Degradation and Ubiquitin-Mediated Marking → Cell Cycle Regulation and Checkpoints → Mitosis → Cytokinesis → Meiosis → Chromosomal Theory of Inheritance → Mendelian Genetics → Dominance, Recessiveness, and Allelic Interactions → Sex-Linked Inheritance → Non-Mendelian Inheritance Patterns → Population Genetics and Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium → Natural Selection → Adaptation and Fitness → Life History Strategies: r- and K-Selection → Predator-Prey Dynamics and the Lotka-Volterra Model → Community Ecology: Structure and Organization → Species Interactions: Competition, Predation, Mutualism, and Parasitism → Trophic Levels and Food Webs → Energy Flow and Ecological Efficiency → Biogeochemical Cycles: Carbon, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus → Nitrogen Fixation, Availability, and Cycling → Phosphorus Cycling and Freshwater-Marine Differences → Nucleotide Structure and Nomenclature → Purine Biosynthesis → Nucleotide Salvage Pathways → Nucleotide Synthesis Pathways (De Novo and Salvage) → Transcription Initiation and Gene Regulation → Gene Regulation in Eukaryotes → Epigenetics → Genetics and Behavior → Prenatal Development → Nature–Nurture Debate → Critical Periods and Sensitive Periods → Critical Periods in Neural Development → Brain Plasticity and Recovery After Injury → Experience-Dependent Plasticity and Learning → Long-Term Potentiation (LTP): Synaptic Strengthening → Long-Term Depression (LTD): Synaptic Weakening → Systems Consolidation and Sleep-Dependent Memory → Memory Reconsolidation and Post-Retrieval Lability → Memory Storage and Consolidation → Declarative and Procedural Memory Systems → Procedural Memory and Skill Acquisition → Expert Cognition and Knowledge Organization → Schemas and Knowledge Organization → Cognitive Biases and Judgment Under Uncertainty → Heuristics in Judgment and Decision Making → Dual-Process Theory of Cognition → Metacognition and Self-Regulated Thinking → Frequency Estimation and Metacognitive Judgment → Overconfidence and Metacognitive Illusions → Calibration Training → Reference Class Forecasting → The Planning Fallacy → Premortem Analysis → Murphyjitsu

Longest path: 268 steps · 1940 total prerequisite topics

Prerequisites (2)

Premortem Analysishard The Planning Fallacysoft

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