← Graph View All Domains
Philosophy › Applied Rationality

Murphyjitsu

Graduate Depth 212 in the knowledge graph ☐ I know this ☆ Set as goal
CFAR planning technique robustness mental-simulation

Core Idea

Murphyjitsu (from CFAR) is a mental simulation technique for stress-testing plans. For each step of your plan, ask: "Does this feel like the sort of plan that will work, or the sort of plan that will fail?" If your gut says it feels like it will fail, identify the most likely failure mode, modify the plan to address it, and repeat until the plan passes the gut check. The technique combines the premortem's failure-imagination with iterative plan repair. It leverages System 1's pattern-matching ability — your intuition often detects problems that your explicit reasoning has not surfaced. The name is a portmanteau of Murphy's Law and jujitsu: using the force of Murphy's Law ("what can go wrong will go wrong") to strengthen your plan rather than being defeated by it.

How It's Best Learned

Before your next important meeting, trip, or project deadline, walk through your plan step by step. At each step, ask "does this feel like it will work?" If not, identify the failure mode and fix it. Repeat until each step passes. Compare the revised plan to your original — the differences reveal your blind spots.

Common Misconceptions

Explainer

From premortem analysis, you know that imagining a project has already failed -- and then explaining why -- surfaces risks that optimism bias and social pressure would otherwise hide. Murphyjitsu, developed by CFAR (the Center for Applied Rationality), takes this insight and adds an iterative repair loop that transforms risk identification into actual plan improvement.

The technique works like this. You walk through your plan step by step, and at each step you ask a simple gut-check question: "Does this feel like the sort of step that will work, or the sort of step that will fail?" If your gut says it feels like it will fail, you stop and identify the most likely failure mode. Then -- and this is what distinguishes Murphyjitsu from a standard premortem -- you modify the plan to address that failure mode. After the modification, you ask the gut-check question again. You repeat this cycle -- identify failure, fix, re-check -- until every step passes the gut check. The name is a portmanteau of Murphy's Law ("what can go wrong will go wrong") and jujitsu (using your opponent's force to your advantage): instead of being defeated by Murphy's Law, you use it to strengthen your plan.

The technique's power comes from deliberately leveraging System 1 pattern-matching. Your intuition, shaped by years of experience, often detects problems that your explicit reasoning has not surfaced. A plan might look coherent on paper -- every step follows logically from the last -- yet still "feel off." That gut reaction is System 1 recognizing a pattern it has seen before: a plan that resembles other plans that failed. Murphyjitsu treats this feeling as a signal worth interrogating rather than dismissing. By asking "why does this feel like it will fail?", you translate an inarticulate intuition into a specific, addressable failure mode.

The practical result is a plan that has been stress-tested against your best intuitions about what typically goes wrong. Consider preparing for a conference talk. Your original plan might be: finish slides by Wednesday, do a practice run Thursday, present Friday. Murphyjitsu might surface that "finish slides by Wednesday" feels unrealistic given your other commitments (fix: block Tuesday afternoon for slides), that your practice run has no audience (fix: ask a colleague to listen), and that you have not tested the projector setup (fix: arrive 30 minutes early). Each fix is small, but the cumulative effect is a plan that accounts for the failure modes you would otherwise discover only when they materialized. The stopping criterion -- "every step passes the gut check" -- keeps the technique bounded and practical rather than spiraling into infinite risk cataloging.

What did you take from this?

Topics in reflective domains aren't scored by quiz answers. Read, reflect, and mark when you've thought it through.

Quiz me anyway →

Prerequisite Chain

Counting to 10 → Counting to 20 → Understanding Zero → The Number Zero → Counting to Five → One-to-One Correspondence → Combining Small Groups Within 5 → Addition Within 10 → Addition Within 20 → Two-Digit Addition Without Regrouping → Two-Digit Addition with Regrouping → Addition Within 100 → Repeated Addition as Multiplication → Multiplication Facts Within 100 → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping (Measurement Division) → Division: Grouping (Repeated Subtraction) Model → Division: Fair Sharing Model → Division as Equal Sharing → Division as Grouping → Basic Division Facts → Division Facts Within 100 → Two-Digit by One-Digit Division → Division with Remainders → Remainders and Quotients in Division → Division Word Problems → Introduction to Long Division → Factors and Multiples → Prime and Composite Numbers → Equivalent Fractions → Relating Fractions and Decimals → Decimal Place Value → Integers and the Number Line → Comparing and Ordering Integers → Absolute Value → Adding Integers → Subtracting Integers → Multiplying Integers → Dividing Integers → Unit Rates → Proportions → Percent Concept → Converting Between Fractions, Decimals, and Percents → Operations with Rational Numbers → Two-Step Equations → Solving Multi-Step Equations → Equations with Variables on Both Sides → Angle Pairs: Complementary, Supplementary, and Vertical → Parallel Lines and Transversals → Corresponding Angles → Alternate Interior Angles → Triangle Angle Sum Theorem → Exterior Angle Theorem → Triangle Inequality Theorem → Similar Triangles: AA Similarity → Similar Triangles: SSS and SAS Similarity → Proportions in Similar Triangles → Right Triangle Trigonometry Introduction → Trigonometric Ratios Review → Radian Measure → Converting Between Degrees and Radians → The Unit Circle → Graphing Sine and Cosine → Graphing Tangent and Reciprocal Trigonometric Functions → Derivatives of Trigonometric Functions → Antiderivatives → Iterated Integrals and Fubini's Theorem → Double Integrals in Cartesian Coordinates → Double Integrals over Rectangular Regions → Double Integrals in Polar Coordinates → Double Integrals: Definition and Setup → Iterated Integrals and Fubini's Theorem → Double Integrals over Rectangular Regions → Double Integrals over General Regions → Applications of Double Integrals: Area, Mass, and Moments → Triple Integrals in Cartesian Coordinates → Triple Integrals in Cylindrical and Spherical Coordinates → Change of Variables and the Jacobian Determinant → Applications of Triple Integrals: Volume and Mass → Vector Fields and Their Representations → Line Integrals of Vector Fields → Green's Theorem → Surface Integrals and Flux of Vector Fields → Surface Integrals and Flux of Vector Fields → Divergence Theorem: Flux and Outflow → Divergence Theorem → Electric Flux → Gauss's Law → Conductors in Electrostatic Equilibrium → Capacitance and Capacitors → Dielectrics → Dielectric Constant and Relative Permittivity → Electric Field Inside Dielectric Materials → Dielectric Materials and Polarization → Dielectric Susceptibility and Permittivity → Energy Density in Electric Fields → Electric Current and Current Density → Electrical Resistance and Resistivity → Ohm's Law and Circuit Elements → Electromotive Force (EMF) and Batteries → Kirchhoff's Circuit Laws: Voltage and Current → DC Circuit Network Analysis Methods → Transient Response in RC Circuits → RC Circuits → LC and RLC Circuits → AC Circuits: Fundamentals → Impedance and Reactance → AC Power and Resonance → Electromagnetic Waves → The Electromagnetic Spectrum → Blackbody Radiation and Planck's Law → Photoelectric Effect → The Photon: Light as Quanta → Compton Scattering → Wave-Particle Duality → de Broglie Wavelength → Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle → Wavefunction and the Born Rule → The Schrödinger Equation → State Vectors and Wavefunctions → Quantum Superposition → Quantum Entanglement → Bell Theorem and Bell Inequalities → Postulates of Quantum Mechanics → Scattering Theory → Introduction to Scattering Theory → Partial Wave Analysis in Scattering → Spin Angular Momentum → Electron Spin and Intrinsic Magnetic Moment → Stern-Gerlach Experiment: Spin Quantization and Measurement → Electron Diffraction and Matter Wave Properties → Davisson-Germer Experiment: Crystal Diffraction of Electrons → Electron Diffraction and Matter Wave Interference → Wavefunctions and Probability Density Interpretation → Quantum Superposition and Linear Combinations of States → Quantum Operators and Observables → Canonical Commutation Relations and Uncertainty → Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle and Measurement Limits → Time-Independent Schrödinger Equation and Eigenvalues → Hydrogen Atom in Quantum Mechanics → Spectral Lines and Energy Transitions → Selection Rules for Atomic Transitions → LS and jj Coupling Schemes in Multi-Electron Atoms → Pauli Exclusion Principle and Antisymmetric Wavefunctions → Electron Configuration and the Aufbau Principle → The Periodic Table and Atomic Electronic Structure → The Periodic Table → Electron Configuration → Periodic Trends → Ionization Energy → Ionic Bonding → Lewis Structures → Resonance Structures and Delocalized Electrons → Resonance and Formal Charge → Molecular Polarity and Dipole Moments → Intermolecular Forces → States of Matter and Phase Changes: Melting, Boiling, and Sublimation → Gas Laws and the Ideal Gas Equation → Gas Stoichiometry and Volume-Volume Calculations → Thermochemistry and Enthalpy → Heat Capacity and Calorimetry → Entropy and Molecular Disorder → Spontaneity and ΔG → Entropy and Gibbs Free Energy → Chemical Equilibrium → Acid-Base Chemistry → Organic Reaction Mechanisms and Arrow Pushing → SN2 Substitution Reactions → SN1 Substitution Reactions → E1 Elimination Reactions → Alcohols and Ethers: Structure, Properties, and Nomenclature → Reactions of Alcohols → Aldehydes and Ketones: Structure and Reactivity → Nucleophilic Addition to Aldehydes and Ketones → Carboxylic Acids and Their Derivatives → Nucleophilic Acyl Substitution → Amines: Structure, Basicity, and Reactions → Amine Reactivity: Nucleophilicity and Basicity → Amino Acid Structure and Properties → Peptide Bonds and Polypeptide Formation → Protein Primary Structure → Protein Secondary Structure → Protein Tertiary Structure → Ion Channels and Selective Permeability Mechanisms → Sensory Receptor Transduction and Adaptation → Sensory Transduction and Encoding → Sensory Pathways Overview → Visual Processing Pathway → The Dorsal Stream and Action Control → Dorsal Stream and Visuomotor Control → Spatial Attention and Posterior Parietal Cortex → Prefrontal-Parietal Attention Networks and Control → Executive Control Networks and the Prefrontal Cortex → Neuroeconomics and Value Computation → Neural Mechanisms of Decision-Making → Working Memory Neural Circuits → Memory Encoding and Levels of Processing → Semantic Memory and Network Models → Mental Models in Understanding and Reasoning → Problem Representation and Solution Search → Expert Cognition and Knowledge Organization → Schemas and Knowledge Organization → Cognitive Biases and Judgment Under Uncertainty → Heuristics in Judgment and Decision Making → Base-Rate Integration and Bayesian Reasoning in Probability → Logical Validity and Belief Bias in Reasoning → Frequency Estimation and Metacognitive Judgment → Overconfidence and Metacognitive Illusions → Calibration Training → Reference Class Forecasting → The Planning Fallacy → Premortem Analysis → Murphyjitsu

Longest path: 213 steps · 1356 total prerequisite topics

Prerequisites (2)

Premortem Analysishard The Planning Fallacysoft

Leads To (0)

No topics depend on this one yet.